I realized it is been a few months since my last post here. I have been completely immersed in an extensive research and analysis project that has consumed all my time and mental energy lately. Without breaching confidentiality, I was commissioned to conduct a literature review synthesizing research insights on the future of universities globally.

The scope was massive – the goal was to isolate crucial dimensions that represent the strategic pillars and activities central to universities. This included areas like teaching models, research orientation, organizational structure, infrastructure, technology adoption and more. Each dimension required deep analytical work. I identified distinct “models” within every dimension showing possible future arrangements and structural configurations that universities could adopt. For example, within the teaching models dimension alone, I outlined overarching models like standardized/efficiency-focused teaching, personalized/adaptive teaching, and experiential/skills-focused teaching. These represented differing philosophies and delivery methods that spam from large-scale lecturing leveraging automation and analytics to customized mentoring focused on hands-on skills application.

By mapping out these multidimensional models, the aim was to provide institutions a practical framework to stress test strategies against alternative futures. Universities could conceive how pressures like funding constraints or online education might push teaching models towards standardization while employer demands for talent might pull towards more experiential learning. By sketching out these dynamic forces pulling in different directions, the aim was to illustrate the strategic tensions confronting modern universities.

I dug extensively into the latest academic research, reports, and foresight literature analyzing trends in higher education. I categorized key ideas as probable, possible or radical based on the credibility and cohesion of the supporting evidence. This established a spectrum from likely incremental changes to radical transformations that could profoundly disrupt universities. It was intense work aiming at a synthesis – continually distilling concepts from scholars across disciplines. Finding connecting threads was challenging but gave a rich interdisciplinary perspective. But grounding the models in literature provided analytical depth and balanced pragmatic visions with imagination. I gained appreciation for the complex dynamics facing modern universities. We live a significant moment, with forces like commercialization, globalization and automation all converging to reshape universities. Mapping this uncertain possibility space is crucial for agility.

The categorization of ideas from the papers as probable, possible and radical based on the credibility of evidence was central to the task. This established a conceptual spectrum ranging from likely incremental changes that are clearly indicated by present trends to radical transformations that could profoundly disrupt universities. Plotting insights along this spectrum grounded the framework in reality while incorporating provocative what-ifs. For example, the rise of online learning reflected a probable trend while augmented reality environments replacing physical campuses entirely would be radical. Between these extremes existed rich possibilities like hybrid learning models blending physical and virtual instruction. By covering the breadth of plausibility, the framework provided robustness.

The result was essentially a map of the possibility space for university strategic planning. By covering all critical activities like teaching, research, infrastructure, governance and technology, the framework gave institutions a tool to visualize alternative trajectories based on diverse modal forces identified from the research. This project revealed the complexity of the tensions modern universities face – from balancing public good motives and market pressures to delivering quality education equitably at scale. But exposing leaders to the full spectrum of possibilities, both probable and radical, fuels agility and resilience.

Although the contents are confidential, this intensive research effort reaffirmed my conviction in structured literature-based foresight. Leveraging insights from scholarship to challenge assumptions is invaluable for organizations navigating uncertainty and risks that will shape their operational environment.

Much more to come applying these techniques!

This work is funded by the Strategic Planning Unit of the University of Turku and is part of a project analyzing the international operational environment of the University.